Tuesday, April 18, 2006

It's Getting Worse, We've REALLY Got To Make Some Noise!

It's Getting Worse, everyday. The Futures Traders have seen that we aren't yet at our breaking point, so they keep bidding up the daily oil prices to preserve their record profit taking.

At what gasoline price point are we going to start squealing? That is what they are trying to determine.

For me, we passed that point at least $1.00/gal ago. There is absolutely NO REASON for oil to be more than $42.00 per barrel, and gasoline $1.50 per gallon. If the market were being driven solely by supply and demand pressures, those are the price points we should be seeing today.

If every oil price increase that was based exclusively on "speculative events", where there was an expected interruption in the supply of oil, were decreased to reflect the actual impact the event had on the supply of oil, rather than to hold those price increases at artificial highs, today the proper market price for a barrel of oil would be no more than $42.00.

If everyone would take five minutes to let it soak into their brain that market prices in every other commodity are driven 99% by nothing but supply and demand factors, then you would realize how badly we are being hood-winked by the movers and shakers of the industry. What if, Heaven Forbid, any one of the other commodity markets would begin to be manipulated in the same manner as the oil market?

How long would we be complacent and not react to price increases at the same rate, and for no apparent true reason, only on "speculation", as we have watched the oil prices increase?

Take paper, for instance. There are many grades of paper at the commodity level. Let's concentrate on a ream (500 sheets) of 81/2 X 11 20 lb. Bond. This is one of the most commonly used grades of paper for your printer, and is used by every household, office, and individual, no matter what their occupation.

For arguments sake, we'll establish the current price at $2.50 per ream. Now let's say the commodity traders have a hunch that the spring season is going to be very wet where the trees are harvested to make the paper. Based on nothing that resembles fact, just speculation, they raise the bid price of paper so that now the price for that ream of paper is $3.00. Are you still buying? Probably! Did you grumble about the price increase? Again, probably.

Now suppose there is known to exist in China a beetle that is quite fond of the pine trees from which paper is made. They have been responsible for devastating damage to huge forests in China, and more recently, also in Korea. Looks like the beetle is getting mobile.

A trader reads an article detailing this, and tells his fellow traders. They know for sure that little beetle will find his way to the US forests, and devestate them as well. Armed with that data, the traders go wild the next day, and bid the paper prices to a point that now, the retail cost of that ream of paper is $5.00. Are you still buying? Probably! Are you letting your kids print out every coloring picture they download? I doubt it. Are you still printing EVERY Email? I doubt it.

See how quickly we adjust our lifestyle with other things we use everyday? Why have we not been so quick to react at the same speed in regards to oil and gasoline prices?

I'll tell you why. We have been made the victims of a very highly polished sales scam from the industry. We have been fed carefully orchestrated stories as to why the prices must be driven up. To the casual mind, the stories seemed reasonable enough, and we accepted the increase at the pumps. Then came another story, then another, and yet another. Each one properly timed, and properly executed in a manner that would have us to accept it without question.

However, to those of us that watch all of the markets, and fully understand the dynamics inherent therein, those stories are revealed to be nothing more than lies. Crafted in anticipation of general acceptance. Indeed, accepted with barely a passing hint of suspicion.

Such has been the chosen path that has taken us to the point at which we stand today. We continue to accept every speculation being the blame for today's round of escalating prices.

How many more of these expertly crafted stories are we going to listen to before we yell out...Enough! Enough of all the crap you're feeding us. It's time to stand accountable for the rape and pillage you have inflicted on the world wide economy.

No more record profits at the expense of every industrialized Nation on Earth. It's time to dig down until you find what is left of your conscience, and make something happen. It's time for those that have proffited at the expense of us all, to experience some good old-fashioned payback! It's time to be shaken out of those Ivory Towers!

Please respond with your comment as to how an effective plan can be crafted to deal with this situation. I will detail my plan later, but for now, I would like to have input from everyone who is concerned about how far this problem could expand.

Thanks,
Your Marketer-In-Arms
Jonathan

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